Re : salutariness!!!
?»?Sports Betting Champ Exposed.
You would be wrong.
John Morrison would like you to believe he is the patron saint of sports gambling, willing to lead you to the promised land of guaranteed winners and six-figure betting income. It certainly seems as though that??™s the case. What other reason would a multi-millionaire have for sharing his gambling secrets with the masses, risking both his reputation and his ability to place bets by going public with a system that sports a supposed near-perfect record and is ???guaranteed??? to make you rich? Surely the money he makes off selling his betting system is peanuts compared to the millions he rakes in annually from the sportsbooks, right? Right?
The Sports Betting Champ makes his money by heavily marketing his product to the public, selling his system by inflating his winning percentages and covering up negative reviews. For those that stumble across his website uninformed, the promises of easy riches can be very tempting and may lead to a purchase.
For the skeptical, a Google search for phrases like ???sports betting champ review???, ???sports betting champ scam???, or ???sports betting champ fraud??? will not lead to any unbiased reviews appearing within the first page of search results. All the pages that show up will have been intentionally created to make it difficult for anyone to find any real reviews without doing even further research.
These pseudo-reviews all read extremely similar (if not direct copy/pastes of a template) and basically spew the same garbage you will read on his main website. Most reviews contain a headline along the lines of ???Sports Betting Champ Scam????, then go on to spread his gospel while offering no analytical information or legitimate research. These fake ???negative??? reviews are designed to flood search engine results and convince skeptics to overcome their initial sense of doubt and become believers (and more importantly, buyers of his product).
Don??™t allow yourself to become one of those people! There are legitimate advantages to be had in the sports betting marketplace. These advantages, as discovered by Sports Insights, are based on years of research and can lead to winning percentages in the range of 54-56% on a consistent basis. Anyone who claims a consistent percentage much higher than this is certain to be utilizing questionable mathematics or sweeping losing results under the proverbial rug.
Of course, the curiosity over such a staggering figure as 97% is hard to overcome.
Still not convinced? Okay, but here is what The Sports Betting Champ isn??™t telling you:
His Winning Percentage is Not Based on Actual Won/Lost Records.
The Sports Betting Champ system utilizes a three-tiered betting structure, in which individual bets are not counted towards wins or loses. Morrison??™s system decides that a certain team will win at least one of three games and directs his customers to bid on that team, one game at a time, doubling their bet size until the team does indeed win. Only if the team loses all three bets is it considered a ???loss??? in Morrison??™s system. In other words, a team that loses twice and wins once would have a record of 1-0 in Morrison??™s system, not 1-2 as would be expected.
His ???Units Won??? Results are Never Displayed or Disclosed.
A former user of the betting system posted the following information in the comments section of one of the rare legitimate reviews of the Sports Betting Champ: ???I have been testing the system for 61 MLB games??¦ here are the facts so far: I aim to have $42 in profit for each game. In order for a win to be worth $42, a ???loss??? (string of losses) will equal $1,095 lost in his system. So far, this MLB season I would have 57 wins and 4 loses, which works out to a total of $1,979 lost .???
In other words, this person, who thankfully was not placing real bets, would have been down $2,000 despite a ???winning??? record of 93.4%.
He Disqualifies the Results of Losing Bets, Despite his Members Already Having Lost Money.
Morrison will frequently decide to disqualify losses for various reasons after his members have already placed wagers. This keeps his winning percentage astronomically high, but costs his members thousands of dollars. He will state that the odds shifted and no longer qualified under his system, even if the odds did qualify for 99% of the day. He will say that an MLB loss doesn??™t qualify if one of the starting pitchers is replaced, even if the pitching change is known hours or days before the game is played. Of course, all wins stay on the books irregardless of their qualifications.
His System Requires an Unlimited Bankroll for Marginal Success.
The martingale theory of wagering, also known as a loss recuperation method, states that a win can be guaranteed if a wager has even odds and a 50% chance of winning and each betting loss is then wagered on double the previous amount. For instance, if a $50 bet fails, then bet $100 dollars to recoup. If that fails, bet $200, and so on and so forth ad infinitum . The problem is that there is no science to winning or losing streaks and probability tells us that a losing streak can go for an indefinite period of time. For a $50 bettor with a $1,000 bankroll, ???indefinite??? only needs to be five losses in a row to find yourself in the hole by $550, all for chasing a $50 profit. ($50+$100+$200+$400+$800 = $1,550).
However, reality is much harsher than theory; Theory has even odds and doesn??™t have a vig. The vig ensures that each bet has to be progressively larger in order to recoup previous losses. Following my earlier example, you would go almost completely broke after only four consecutive losses chasing a $50 profit in the real world, with a 10% vig:
$55 bet to win $50 ??“ $55 lost.
$115 bet to win $105 ($55+$50) ??“ $170 lost.
$245 bet to win $220 ($115+$55+$50) ??“ $415 lost.
$520 to win $465 ($245+$115+$55+$50) ??“ $935 lost.
What You Can Expect by Following The Sports Betting Champ.
In reality, there are only three outcomes you can expect by using this system: wager a lot to win a little, wager a lot to lose a little, or wager a lot to lose everything. The main factor in determining which outcome will apply to you is your bankroll and your luck. If your bankroll is large enough to make continuous large bets (1000 times the size of your unit bet), than you will probably win a little in the long term. However, if your bankroll is that large, you are probably wise enough to realize this system is a scam and not worth your time.
If your bankroll is medium to small then you will almost certainly not end up a winner. You will most likely lose either a little or lose everything, all depending on how lucky you are. If you hit a losing streak early on, you will be broke. If you hit a losing streak in the middle, you will be a loser and probably broke. If you are lucky enough to avoid a losing streak for some time, then you may win a little. To keep your winnings, you must walk away and never wager again because every time you start this system over, you increase your probability of ending up broke.
If you believe you??™re lucky enough to win in this system, then don??™t waste your time on the Sports Betting Champ ??“ go to Vegas, find a roulette table, and put your life savings on ???black???. Or maybe you should try ???green???.
The Good News.
The good news in all of this is that there are legitimate ways to make money in sports gambling. Like any marketplace, the sports betting world is full of inefficiencies that can be exploited for profit. Many different systems exist that use real research, not gimmicks, to find these inefficiencies and report them. This does not mean that there are such things as guaranteed winners ??“ there aren??™t. Rather, it means that certain situations present opportunities where there is value in taking one side over another based on historic precedence.
There are some betting systems, like those found at SportsInsights, that have been built on years of research and have proven that a 54-56% winning percentage is attainable in the long term. Our systems are transparent, and we do not modify or alter our results in any way. We constantly track our results in order to find areas that we may be able to improve upon, and we listen and respond to customer feedback.
In today??™s economy, it is especially important to make wise decisions with your money, and avoiding scam artists like John Morrison is critical. When traditional Certificates of Deposit are paying 1.5% and the stock market is a roller coaster, the 4-6% return our members can expect on a consistent basis is the best bet in town.
Conference Championship Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks for first round of NFL Playoffs.
With the AFC and NFC Championship games slated for Sunday, the 2020 NFL season has reached its final two matchups before Super Bowl Sunday. It??™s the second-biggest stage in the sport, and it has already generated a ton of betting activity. Bettors will be looking back at the 19 weeks that led up to this final four weekend, looking for any angles they can find against the spread, on the moneyline, or on the over/under totals.
Every week, this column provides a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL offers. Check us out now to reveal our full betting predictions for every game of the conference championship round, including projections and best bet ratings from our NFL Best Bet Model.
All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL??™s Line Movement Dashboard.
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DFS: Top values | FanDuel | DraftKings.
Conference Championship Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week.
My longtime friend Steve has been a loyal Tampa Bay fan for 20-plus years, and he hates this pick because of the Bucs??™ dismal track record. ???They??™re going to get beat bad this weekend,??? Steve said. ???That??™s what they do.???
But they haven??™t had the greatest and most clutch quarterback of all-time under center until this season. Don??™t get me wrong, I??™ve never been a huge Tom Brady fanboy despite my New England lineage, but I do recognize his contributions to the Patriots??™ dynasties, and to the NFL as a whole. The man never gets flustered on the biggest stages. He competes until the very end.
The Bucs may not win Sunday, but I simply do not see them losing by more than a field goal. They forced four turnovers and held Drew Brees and the Saints to 294 total yards (190 passing) in their 30-20 divisional-round victory. They put up 507 offensive yards (365 passing) against a good Washington defense one week prior, good for a 31-23 wild card win. Brady has thrown 16 touchdowns and just one interception over the course of Tampa??™s past six games.
Let??™s also not forget that the Packers fell to the Bucs 38-10 in the first Battle of the Bays this season in Week 6. Brady went 17-of-27 for 166 yards and two TDs that week, finishing with a 104.9 QB rating. Tampa logged five sacks for 53 yards and forced Packers QB Aaron Rodgers to throw two interceptions. Pack running back Aaron Jones managed just 15 yards on 10 carries. Green Bay scored only one touchdown in the loss.
That game was obviously an outlier in Rodgers??™ fantastic season, for which he will likely garner MVP honors. However, Rodgers has had his fair share of struggles in big moments, particularly in the postseason. Will All-Pro wideout Davante Adams once again be stymied by Tampa??™s underrated secondary? Will the Bucs??™ defensive line disrupt Rodgers in the pocket? Will Devin White maintain his borderline-inhuman rate of productivity? These are all distinct possibilities.
BetQL??™s NFL Best Bet Model puts three stars on the Bucs covering the 3.5 points. It also points out an interesting trend: Tampa Bay has gone 7-1 against defensive units allowing over 5.6 yards per play this season. Green Bay has allowed just over 5.5 yards per play in 2020.
Ultimately, I have the Packers winning 27-24, but it will be a wild ride to the finish line and nobody will be breathing easy until the final whistle.
Conference Championship Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week.
Kansas City Chiefs (-170) vs. Buffalo Bills.
It??™s so difficult to pick against the Buffalo, who I have touted as a breakout contender since before this crazy season started. Josh Allen has grown by leaps and bounds in front of all of our eyes and is on a collision-course with history in a fantastic run of prime-time conquests. But alas, he??™s not Patrick Mahomes, and the Bills just do not measure up to the dominating depth chart of the defending champions.
Winners make winning plays, and Mahomes has proved time and time again that he??™s the best in the NFL on the big stage. The Chiefs finished the regular season with the best record, somehow improving upon its 2019 offense. Kansas City also greatly benefited from the hire of Steve Spagnuolo as defensive coordinator. The Chiefs cracked the top 10 in fewest points allowed this season and finished fifth in the NFL in interceptions.
The majestic union of Allen and star Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs has been a fantastic story this season, and they are undoubtedly going to be wreaking havoc on the league for years to come. That said, Kansas City has far too many playmakers, including the always-explosive wideout Tyreek Hill and perhaps the best pass-catching tight end ever in Travis Kelce. The Bills will soon get their time in the sun, but I just don??™t think it??™s this year.
Conference Championship Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week.
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OVER 51.5.
BetQL likes the Bills-Chiefs game to go UNDER 54 points, but let??™s face it: It??™s more fun to bet on the OVER in the playoffs. Thus, we are rooting for a barnburner in the Rodgers-Brady showdown on Sunday afternoon.
Statistics are on our side here. The Buccaneers have scored at least 30 points in their past five contests and hit 44 twice in that span. Green Bay has hit 30-plus in seven of its past eight games, while reaching 40 twice. The Bucs are the third-highest scoring team in the NFL with the seventh-most yards on the season. The Pack are the top-scoring team in the NFL and produced the fifth-most yards.
These defenses have both been good this season, but their quarterbacks have been better. This will be a battle of two cagey veterans, and it seems highly unlikely that either will let it become a defensive slugfest. There??™s always a risk going with the crowd -- 79 percent of sharp money is on the OVER in this one -- but investing in the points potential of two future first-ballot Hall-of-Fame QBs seems smart to me.
For more betting analysis and information, head over to BetQL and check out our model??™s best bets, sharp data, and much more for every playoff game! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL!
NFL betting guide for conference championships: History says trust the hosts.
By Steve Makinen , VSiN.
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Most Popular Today.
January 22, 2021 | 10:00am.
For as different as this NFL season has been due to the impact of COVID-19, the first two weeks of the playoffs have generally followed the trends of recent years. Over the past two weeks, I have compiled trends from the wild-card and divisional rounds of recent NFL playoffs. In the wild-card round, it was obvious going in that road teams had held an edge of late. They did so again in 2021. In the divisional round, I explained that hosts typically won three of the four games. That??™s exactly what happened last weekend.
Up next are the conference championships, and the most noticeable factor when analyzing recent conference title games is that besides the road sweep two years ago, home teams have won every game outright since 2013. They also own an ATS edge of 10-4 during that seven-year stretch. Last year??™s games were decided by double digits, re-establishing the trend that was thwarted in 2019, when the previous 10-game run by the hosts produced average scores of 33.3-16.
Using similar methodologies to that of the past two weeks, here are some of the notable trends and systems from recent conference championship games. When applicable, I will apply the key information to this year??™s matchups.
Patrick Mahomes (left) and Aaron Rodgers could both return to the Super Bowl with conference championship wins this weekend. Getty Images (2) The outright winner has covered the point spread in all but five of the last 38 conference championship games. The most recent team to fail to do that was New England three years ago, when it held off Jacksonville 24-20 as a 7.5-point favorite. Hosts are on a 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS run, though the Rams and Patriots (Tom Brady) won outright and ATS on the road two years ago. It??™s evident that home-field advantage has proven important in recent years. Hosts favored by fewer than seven points are 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS in their past 17 tries. Those games have also gone Over the total at an 11-5-1 rate. These line-range trends figure to be the most applicable to this week??™s games. The past 17 times a home team has won and covered the point spread, that game has also gone Over the total at a 13-4 rate. Home teams are 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS in the last 14 AFC title games and 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS in their last 16 NFC championships. No. 1 seeds have been the host teams in 41 of the last 56 conference championship games and have gone 28-13 SU and 21-20 ATS in those games. Green Bay and Kansas City are the No. 1 seeds for 2021. Since 1993, Over the total is 33-22-1 in conference championships. However, a stark difference exists between conferences, as the past nine AFC games are 6-3 to the Under while NFC contests are on a 13-5-1 Over surge. Both games last year surged over their posted totals by more than a touchdown. The last eight games with totals in the 50s have seen three Overs and five Unders. Barring changing weather, both games Sunday figure to be in that category.
How to Bet on Sports for Beginners: 12 Tips to Know.
Suchat Pederson/The News Journal via USA TODAY NETWORK.
Over the past few years, the emergence of daily fantasy sports has led to a renaissance for conventional sports betting. The anti-gambling stigma that existed for decades is fading in American popular culture, opening the door for a massive, multibillion-dollar legal sports betting industry to emerge.
With sports betting now legal in many states, millions of sports fans will be looking to enter the betting market for the first time. But where do you begin if you??™re unfamiliar with the terminology?
Here??™s an introduction into how to bet on sports. We??™ll be adding to this series in the coming weeks.
How to Bet on Sports for Beginners: 12 Tips.
Use the links below to jump to each section.
1. Favorites vs. Underdogs.
When the oddsmakers release a betting line on a game, the first thing they do is decide which team should be the favorite and which should be the underdog.
The favorite is the team that is expected to win the game and will get a minus sign next to its odds, while the underdog is expected to lose and gets a plus sign. If the game is a toss-up, books will open it as a ???pick??? or ???pick??™em.??? Click to return to table of contents .
2. Spreads.
There are two main ways to bet on a favorite or an underdog. The first is the point spread, which is a bet on the margin of victory. A favorite ???gives??? points, while an underdog ???gets??? points.
For example, say the Patriots are 7-point favorites (-7) against the Jets.
If you bet on the Patriots, they need to win the game by 8 points or more for you to win your bet. If the Patriots win by 8 points or more, you ???cover.??? If the Patriots win by exactly 7 points, that is called a ???push,??? which means you get back the money you originally bet.
If the Patriots win by 6 points or fewer (or lose the game straight-up), you lose your bet.
Spreads are available for all sports, but they are predominantly used when betting on higher-scoring sports like football and basketball.
3. Moneylines.
The second way to bet on a favorite or an underdog is on the moneyline. This is based solely on which team will win the game.
Favorites are given a ???minus??? designation, such as -150, -200 or -500. If a favorite is -200, that means you have to risk $200 to win $100. If the favorite wins, you get $100, but if the favorite loses, you??™re out $200.
Because favorites are expected to win, you assume more risk when betting on them.
Moneylines are available for all sports, but they are predominantly used when betting on lower-scoring sports like baseball, hockey and soccer.
4. Over/Unders (Totals)
In addition to setting a line for the favorite and the underdog, oddsmakers will also set a total number of points scored in a game by both teams combined. This is called the total or over/under.
Bettors can then wager on whether or not the game will go Over or Under the total.
For example, an NBA game between the Celtics and Bulls might have a total of 215. You could either bet the Over 215 or the Under 215. If you bet the Over 215 and the total points scored end up being 216 or higher, you win your bet. If the total points scored are 214 or fewer, you lose.
5. What Is the -110 Number Listed Next to My Bet?
The oddsmakers put a ???tax??? on every bet, which is typically called the ???juice??? or ???vig??? (short for ???vigorish???). The juice is the commission you have to pay to the sportsbook for them to accept your wager.
Say the Duke Blue Devils are -5 (-110) ??¦ that means if you want to bet on Duke as a 5-point favorite, you need to risk $110 to win $100.
You always have to risk more on a favorite than you??™d win on an underdog??¦otherwise, sportsbooks would be out of business.
6. How to Place a Bet.
With legalized sports betting spreading across America, sports bettors have never had more options to take advantage of. To see if sports betting is legal where you live, check out our state-by-state tracker.
Some of the biggest states that have legalized mobile wagering include Colorado, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana and West Virginia. The sportsbooks highlighted below are all trustworthy legal shops that take bets online.
Wanna Bet? A Guide to NFL Championship Sunday.
Legit Terrifying.
Wanna Bet?
Haven??™t placed your Championship Weekend bets yet? I??™m gonna unleash a flurry of numbers to help you make an informed decision. And you must read Frankie Taddeo??™s betting breakdowns: AFC Championship and NFC Championship.
Bucs at Packers:
Spread : Packers (-3.5)
Total : 51.5.
As Taddeo noted, approximately 55% of all spread wagers are on the Packers, while 71% of all money line wagers are on the Bucs. And 78% of wagers are on the over.
At 11??“6 against the spread this season, the Packers enter Sunday with the second-most ATS wins. They??™re 5??“3 ATS at Lambeau Field, including last week??™s 6.5-point cover vs. the Rams, and 5??“2 ATS during their seven-game winning streak (including 4??“0 ATS in their last four games). They??™re also 6??“4 ATS in winning nine of their last 10 games overall and have covered in five straight home games against teams with a winning record.
The Packers are 5??“1 ATS in their last six games after registering at least 350 total yards in their previous game (484 vs. the Rams) and 18??“71 ATS in their last 26 games after rushing for more than 150 in their previous game (188 vs. the Rams). And Aaron Rodgers has covered in approximately 65% of career home games.
And there??™s a reason why 78% of wagers are on the over: The over is 7??“1 in the Bucs??™ last eight games following an ATS win and 6??“1 in the Bucs??™ last seven games as a road underdog. Further, the over is 8??“0 in the Packers??™ last eight January games and 4??“0 in the Packers??™ last four games vs. a team with a winning record.
Bills at Chiefs:
Spread : Chiefs (-3.5)
Total : 54.5.
Despite an all-clear from Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs remain modest 3.5-point favorites as of Saturday morning and most wagers are still coming in on the Bills (just over 55%). The total has jumped several times, opening at 50.5 before climbing to 54.5, though that hasn??™t scared nearly 70% of bettors from taking the over.
The Chiefs were the most overvalued team all season and enter this weekend with a 6-10-1 ATS record, including 3??“6 ATS at home. They??™re 1??“8 ATS in their last nine and will face the best ATS team in the NFL. As noted, at 11??“6 ATS, the Packers rank second in ATS wins. At 12??“6, the Bills rank first, most recently covering against the Ravens (-2.5) last weekend.
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